Three disparate things I read recently made me sit back and look again at the threat biotechnology poses to the future of humanity. The first was an announcement by scientists from the J Craig Venter Institute about their work on genome transplantation that allowed them to transform one type of bacteria into another type. This is the first time in history that a completely synthetic organism has been created. The second was a statement made by Sir Martin Rees, Astronomer Royal and former President of the British Association for the Advancement of Science, considered one of the most eminent scientists today. He states: “I have bet a thousand dollars on a bet: that by 2020, a case of biological error or biological terror will have killed a million people.” The third was that scientists at Shanghai Second Medical University have created the first human / animal chimera (animal containing genetic material from parents of two or more distinctly different species) by fusing cells from humans and rats.

The first data shows that biotechnology is advancing at breakneck speed and has the ability to change things in fundamental ways. This ability has already translated into drug and other product development: Biotechnology now produces 40 percent of the drugs that the US Food and Drug Administration approves each year.

The second indicates that scientists of the caliber of Sir Martin Rees believe that it is likely that this ability could be used with malicious intent. Biological weapons are the ideal weapons for terrorists and / or anarchists. The cost of establishing a laboratory for biotechnology research is significantly less than that of developing nuclear or chemical weapons. Manufacturing lethal toxins requires modest equipment, essentially the same as is needed for medical or agricultural programs: the technology is “dual-use.”

Research teams have been able to reconstitute the polio virus as well as the 1918 pandemic influenza virus (which killed between 20 and 40 million people) using only published DNA information and raw material from mail order services. . This knowledge and technology is already dispersed among hospital staff, academic research institutes, and factories. Bioterrorism is therefore a real possibility in the next decade with the invention of ways to kill that previously only existed in the realm of science fiction.

Sir Martin Rees also mentions the possibility of error on the part of laboratories and agencies that would otherwise be responsible. Ed Hammond of the Sunshine Project in Texas that monitors the use of biological agents says that laboratory accidents happen much more frequently than the public knows. In recent years, the spread of FMD in the UK (2007), the death of a laboratory worker at Texas A&M (2006) due to brucellosis after cleaning a high-containment container, the exposure of 3 researchers from the Boston University Medical Center. (2004) to tularemia or rabbit fever. All of these labs are well managed and subject to many regulations. The same cannot be said for other labs in different parts of the world. Perhaps the worst biological error occurred in 1979 in the former Soviet Union when weapons-grade anthrax leaked from a facility in Sverdlovsk, now known as Yekaterinburg, and killed 68 people. The accident was covered up by the authorities and came to light only in 1998.

If there is a major outbreak in the future, government authorities may clamp down on the type of investigation and agents that can be used in experimentation. However, this would have no impact on research in labs de rouge or by antisocial elements.

The human chimera experiment in China is one that could not have been carried out in any other country in the world. Most, at least at present, do not have the scientific capacity. Those that do, such as the US and Western Europe, have strict codes of ethics and regulations that expressly prohibit such experimentation. However, even between the US and Europe, there is a big difference in the regulatory framework. In the United States, biotechnology products have been widely tested and marketed. In the EU, few biotech products have received regulatory approval, while most have faced a de facto moratorium.

Many countries do not have any kind of regulatory framework related to biotechnology or restrictions on the type of research that can be carried out. Terrifying experiments could be carried out, without the knowledge of the rest of the world or of the authorities within the countries themselves. These could even attract groups to establish research facilities in the future, the same principle that attracts groups and individuals to tax havens like Barbados, St Kitts, the Canary Islands, etc.

Advances made in the field of biotechnology have the potential to improve the lives of humanity by impacting health, eradicating disease, and creating miracle drugs. But we must also give serious thought to what we must do to prevent Sir Martin Rees’ gamble from coming true.