Bookmakers use their own soccer prediction models. Their odds are usually calculated in a way that minimizes the payouts for match favorites. The accuracy of these predictions can be analyzed by comparing the betting odds and the actual result of the football matches.

This article compares the accuracy of soccer predictions made by bookmakers during 2008/09 and the first half of 2009/10. The comparison is based on the average betting odds of the main European football leagues.

Data and methods

To compare the accuracy of bookmakers’ predictions, the authors of this article analyzed the match results and average betting odds of the following top 10 European football leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier League, Dutch Eredivisie , French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier League, Spanish First Division and Turkish Super League.

The outcome of a match was estimated based on the average payout offered by bookmakers for that match. The possible profit of a punter who bets on bookmakers’ favorites was calculated according to the average betting odds.

Summary

The conclusion was that the bookmakers successfully predicted the outcome of more than 54% of the matches during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons. Thus, the average accuracy of bookmakers’ football predictions is relatively high in the case of the major European leagues. However, the low payouts make these predictions very unprofitable as betting tips.

1×2 bets:

— Losses of -4% and -2%, respectively, were estimated for bettors, who used fixed odds as betting tips.
— The only profitable league during those two seasons was the Austrian Bundesliga (+14% and +6% wins) with more than 60% correct match predictions.
— The least profitable leagues were the Scottish Premier (-22% and -6%) and the German Bundesliga (-11% and -6%).
— The most drastic improvement in 1×2 betting returns was seen in the Dutch Eredivisie league, where the return changed from -11% to +8%.
— The most drastic degradation in 1×2 betting returns was seen in the Turkish Super Lig, where the return changed from +4% to -18%.

Total under or over bets are the least profitable:

— Total losses under/over 2.5 were almost the same during both seasons and equal to 10%.

The bottom line is that using bookmakers’ football predictions as betting tips doesn’t work for daily bets. Although the accuracy of its predictions is high, its odds do not generate winnings on bets.