Nothing is at stake in international friends. These games have some significance only when used as a warm-up before crucial competitions like the World Cup.

Most club managers consider these friends to be a complete nuisance. Some of them are fighting tooth and nail with the GM over refusing to release their star players. There are numerous cases of players returning with injuries that greatly compromised the chances of the clubs in the league and other competitions. The ‘club vs country’ debate is always controversial.

Conventional wisdom is to avoid betting these friendlies as they are considered pointless. The results are often unpredictable. But a smart bettor can find value in uncertainties.

The following factors can be considered:

1. Home advantage of an intimidating place

Countries like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan etc. they are not the most comfortable places to visit. How do you hope soccer superstars enjoy?

a) Long flights (some countries do not have direct flight links).

b) Living environment and food less than hygienic.

c) Strange customs (especially if the country is predominantly of a different religion).

d) Weather (it can’t be easy to travel long distances from the frigid winter in Europe to play in a humid stadium in Turkey on a summer night).

2. Motivation

It’s kind of hard to expect motivation when games are considered meaningless. However, please note:

a) The home team may be more motivated as they are playing for their country in front of their fans.

b) The game is more likely to be broadcast live, especially if the home team is playing a highly rated visiting team like England. Therefore, the home team will be super charged.

c) Due to the live broadcast, this is a good opportunity especially for players from a ‘dark’ country to showcase their talent, hoping to attract the attention of sports scouts from big European clubs.

d) Gambling is used to restore national pride. If the country has been roughed up by their opponent in a previous game, there may be a motivation to treat the game as a revenge match.

3. Team formation

Don’t expect key players to appear in these friendlies. Most clubs are reluctant to release their star players for fear that they will return injured or fatigued. Therefore, most of the chosen players tend to be second-stringers and may not do everything they can to decrease the risk of injury themselves.

When most teams play cautiously, most of the time it will be a boring game.

Conclusion

Most bettors are only familiar with the same few famous national teams. Countries that you have barely heard of will automatically be considered ‘no good’. However, as the results of these friendlies are unpredictable, the savvy punter can spot enormous value in some underdogs, especially playing at home.